Analysis of Alberta By-Elections

This is my personal post-election analysis of the PC sweep of by-elections.

Normally, by-elections are not viewed as a measure of popularity.  They are incidental.  This, however, was framed, (I think incorrectly,) as a major battle between Wildrose and the PCs.

I think the better view is that Wildrose could never have won.  Albertans wanted to give Prentice a chance.  There is no doubt they are angry.  But a leaderless government, should he be defeated in his by-election, is worse than a new Prentice government.  And his endearing manner, early first steps, and all appearances, signaled that he was perhaps worth a chance.  So it was probably a foregone conclusion that Prentice would win his by-election.

His two handpicked rock stars were framed as necessary for a new face, a new regime and turning a new leaf.  Albertans wanted to give Prentice a chance and if he needed these two outsiders, then we have to give him a chance with his two outsiders.  And goodness knows, Albertans were ready for a new regime, a new face, and turning over a new leaf.  The old Stelmach-Redford horrors were still fresh in all of our minds.  So the two rock stars were given a presumptive pass.

If there was a vulnerability in the whole plan, it was with the Calgary rock star, Dirks.

The Edmonton rock star was well-liked, blooded in former elections, and had a solid base.

The Calgary rock star was, however, vulnerable.  He had a reputation as a spendthrift earned while leading the Calgary Board of Education.  Mike Evans’ well-composed financial analysis of the CBE Taj Mahal office building confirmed this beyond a shadow of a doubt.  This widely-circulated analysis might have been a major point of vulnerability.

But Prentice answered this vulnerability with hundreds of millions of dollars of promises targeted on Dirks’ riding alone.  This included an invasive flood-control plan, which is viewed by all as not only expensive, but probably dangerous.  And this was buttressed with the promise of new school rooms and fast-tracked flood relief for this riding and its residents.  And if that were not enough, they hired Alan Hallman.  Speaking as one who has hired Alan Hallman for political campaigns, I can attest to the political skills and desire to win of this top-flight Alberta operative.  He may well be the best in the business in Alberta.

Wildrose chose not to attack one particular potential vulnerability, but rather a province-wide “Send the PCs a Message” campaign.  Perhaps their only chance was a targeted attack on the vulnerable Calgary rock star; but this was not the chosen path.  Too bad, so sad.

But enough of the bad news.  Let’s turn to the good news.  The good news includes:

• No criticism of the Wildrose and its Caucus.
• Major praise for the Caucus and its steady hand and steady influence during the last year.
• No “lake of fire”, Danielle has successfully pivoted the Wildrose away from that world to the world of mainline political dynamics.
• The “fear” label would not and could not stick to Wildrose. Danielle has again pivoted the Wildrose successfully into mainline political competition.
• The competition was framed as a battle between two legitimate equals.
• The Wildrose campaign was executed with a degree of discipline and cost efficiency which is to be commended.
• The Wildrose fundraising machine generated significant returns from many, many small donors, which again validates the strong political future for Wildrose.

Danielle has asked for a vote of confidence.  This is part of the Wildrose ethic, and it’s an appropriate step.  But the real lessons from this campaign that occur to me are:

• The party has pivoted away from former misfires to mainline political competitiveness.
• Candidate selection for the by-elections was magnificent.  All of the candidates were strong and credible, and are now blooded for the next provincial-wide election.
• If the Wildrose is going to make mistakes, this was the time to make them.  The campaign team can be re‑jigged, leadership reorganized, and onward, and forward.

This is my view.